South Africa and Sri Lanka look to keep their WTC final hopes alive – T20 IPL 2024

Big picture: Can Sri Lanka avoid another collapse?

The headline is that both teams are in with a shot at making the World Test Championship final, but neither have secured a place. Unhelpfully for South Africa, the WTC points system doesn’t reward hefty winning margins, so although they crushed Sri Lanka by 233 runs in Durban, it still only goes down as a simple win.

Still, they have arrived in Gqeberha full of confidence. Another win here, and their path to that final clears up significantly. A win for Sri Lanka, meanwhile, would mean they have a chance of qualifying for the final without having to depend on other results. (They would also need to win the matches against Australia 2-0.)

Their first goal, however, is to be more competitive than they were in Durban. Their batters, specifically, cannot allow another collapse to occur. Various members of the batting group have spoken about the challenge of facing South Africa’s tall quicks, on tracks that offer more bounce than they are used to at home. These coastal venues are not as bouncy as they tend to be in the Highveld, for instance, but have clearly presented more of a challenge than Sri Lanka expected. They’ll also hope that given the wind and sunshine forecast for Gqeberha for the next few days, the surface will dry out and bring spinners more meaningfully into the game.

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South Africa’s own batters were dismissed for 191 in the first innings in Kingsmead, but they have Temba Bavuma and Tristan Stubbs coming into this Test in serious form, while Aiden Markram also got a decent innings under his belt at Kingsmead.

South Africa’s concerns ahead of the Test centre around the make-up of their attack, with Wiaan Mulder and Gerald Coetzee both ruled out. They still have their spearheads in Kagiso Rabada and Marco Jansen, however, who shared 14 wickets in the previous Test, Jansen getting 11 on his own.

Form guide

South Africa: WWWWD (last five Tests, most recent first)
Sri Lanka: LWWWL

In the spotlight: Tristan Stubbs and Lahiru Kumara

Test cricket must seem pretty straightforward so far to 24-year-old Tristan Stubbs. Eleven innings in, he’s got two centuries and a fifty, with an average of 43.90. While Bavuma was tentative in the approach to triple figures in Kingsmead, Stubbs raced through the 90s. He had had some luck in that innings, having been dropped on 33, but remained positive through his stay at the crease, pressing South Africa’s advantage alongside Bavuma. He will relish the opportunity to back that 122 up with a solid performance in his first Test in his home town.

Lahiru Kumara is not always the most disciplined of Sri Lanka’s quicks, but he is their fastest bowler, and at Kingsmead, the most penetrative. He is on the verge of joining a fairly exclusive club. Sri Lanka have only ever had four seam bowlers get to 100 wickets – Chaminda Vaas, Lasith Malinga, Suranga Lakmal, and Dilhara Fernando. Kumara needs only one more dismissal to get up to triple figures. If Sri Lanka are to level the series, they will likely need Kumara to blow well past that milestone.

Pitch and conditions

The pitch appears to have significant grass coverage on the eve of the Test, meaning it will start off spicy. The strong winds ever-present in Gqeberha will mean it dries out faster than at other venues, however. No rain is forecast for the five days, for now.

Team news

South Africa may go with Dane Paterson and 18-year-old Kwena Maphaka to fill out their attack, though spin-bowling allrounder Senuran Muthusamy is also in the conversation.

South Africa (probable): 1 Aiden Markram, 2 Tony de Zorzi, 3 Tristan Stubbs, 4 Temba Bavuma (capt), 5 David Bedingham, 6 Kyle Verreynne (wk), 7 Marco Jansen, 8 Dane Paterson, 9 Keshav Maharaj, 10 Kwena Maphaka, 11 Kagiso Rabada

Sri Lanka also have major decisions to make around their attack. Will they do what they did in Lord’s this year, and strap four fast bowlers to the plow? It’s a definite possibility, given Milan Rathnayake can also bat a bit. Watch out for potential changes higher up in the batting order too.

Sri Lanka (probable): 1 Dimuth Karuanaratne, 2 Pathum Nissanka, 3 Dinesh Chandimal, 4 Angelo Mathews, 5 Kamindu Mendis, 6 Dhananjaya de Silva (capt), 7 Kusal Mendis (wk), 8 Milan Rathnayake, 9 Vishwa Fernando, 10 Asitha Fernando, 11 Lahiru Kumara

Stats and trivia

If Kumara takes three wickets in Gqeberha, his wicket-tally will go past those of Dilhara Fernando (100) and Lasith Malinga (101), and he will become the third-highest wicket-taker in Sri Lanka’s seam-bowling history.
Sri Lanka lost their first match in Gqeberha in 2016, going down by 206 runs. But they won their most recent game at the venue, by eight wickets in 2019.
Stubbs has been excellent at getting starts so far in his career, having got to 20 in nine of his 11 innings.

Andrew Fidel Fernando is a senior writer at ESPNcricinfo. @afidelf

Source: ESPN Crickinfo