Sri Lanka look to ride on hot streak to stay in the fray for WTC final – T20 IPL 2024

Big picture – Teams hope to keep WTC final chances alive

New Zealand lost their first ever Test in Galle by an innings and 16 runs, their next by 202 runs, the one after that by 10 wickets, the next by six wickets, and the match that ended on Monday by 63 runs. They might be zero for five here, but at least those margins have grown slimmer with each outing.

With luck, they can close the gap even further in the Test starting Thursday. They could really do with a win here, though, to keep their hopes of making the World Test Championship final alive if nothing else; their next assignment is three Tests in India, which is very likely the toughest tour in the game.

New Zealand weren’t especially far away in the first Test, either. If Daryl Mitchell – batting nicely on 57 at the time – hadn’t been run out on the second morning, they could have pushed on to a commanding first-innings lead. And then, on a wearing track, who knows how Sri Lanka would have responded? Sri Lanka are obviously a skilled team playing in familiar conditions, but through the likes of Ajaz Patel, Mitchell, Will O’Rourke and Rachin Ravindra, New Zealand brought plenty of skill to a dusty Galle surface.

Sri Lanka, however, will be brimming with good vibes. They are on a bit of hot streak under interim coach Sanath Jayasuriya. There was one disastrous Test at Lord’s, but before that they had competed in Manchester, and won an ODI series against India for the first time since the late 1990s.

Now, they have notched up two consecutive Test victories for the second time this year, having also defeated Bangladesh twice (away from home, no less) earlier in the year. Their bowlers have been the heart of this success, but the batters have found ways to contribute too.

Another win at Galle will put their WTC percentage points at 56 – not very far away from Australia (62.5), who are second on that table at the moment.

Form guide – NZ on a losing streak

Sri Lanka WWLLW (completed matches, most recent first)
New Zealand LLLWW

In the spotlight – Dinesh Chandimal and Kane Williamson

Dinesh Chandimal has been asked to shuffle up the order to No. 3. He will have known he doesn’t have a stellar record in that position, having made just one fifty in eight innings at first drop before the first Test. But he took the spot anyway, to allow the team to make two other moves – sending Kamindu Mendis up the order to No. 5, and Kusal Mendis down, as wicketkeeper-batter, to No. 7.

Chandimal has, however, made a strong start in his new role, producing a vital 61 in the second innings in the first Test. Dimuth Karunaratne, his partner for much of that knock, praised Chandimal for his positivity at the crease. It’s not often that batters with 15 hundreds on their record agree to move for less-established players. More good scores at No. 3, at a venue he generally likes, may put him in a better frame of mind for challenges to come.

Kane Williamson has played with other New Zealand greats (and still does so long as Tim Southee is around), but the greatest predictor of a New Zealand victory over the past 15 years has been whether Williamson gets runs. He averages 81.86 when New Zealand win. This is largely backed by an immense record at home, but even in Asia, it holds true – he averages 71.70 in the six wins he’s played in on the continent. He hasn’t quite cracked Galle, though. In six innings at the venue, he averages 16.50. But then his two best scores here – 55 and 30 – came in the last match. Perhaps he is building to something big.

Pitch and conditions

It’s Galle. Expect another rank turner. But also, given the evidence of the first Test, expect Will O’Rourke, Tim Southee and Asitha Fernando to dig up the pitch on one side, creating big footmarks outside the left-hand batters’ off stump (or right-hand batters’ leg stump) on either side of the pitch as the game wears on.

And, it’s southern Sri Lanka in September. Expect short, sharp showers.

Team news – Rathnayake and Peiris come into Sri Lanka XI

Despite their win, Sri Lanka have made two changes to their XI. Milan Rathnayake, who was impressive with bat and ball on his debut tour in England, has been included in the XI in place of Lahiru Kumara, who did not take a wicket in the first Test. They have also dropped Ramesh Mendis, who at times lacked for control in the first Test. In his place they have named a debutant in Nishan Peiris, another offspinner, aged 27. He has 172 first-class wickets at an average of 24.37.

Sri Lanka: 1 Dimuth Karuanaratne, 2 Pathum Nissanka, 3 Dinesh Chandimal, 4 Angelo Mathews, 5 Kamindu Mendis, 6 Dhananjaya de Silva (capt), 7 Kusal Mendis (wk), 8 Milan Rathnayake, 9 Prabath Jayasuriya, 10 Nishan Peiris, 11 Asitha Fernando

If there’s a change New Zealand may be tempted to make, it is to swap out Mitchell Santner for Michael Bracewell. Santner had a modest first Test, taking 1 for 115 with his left-arm spin (Glenn Phillips felt like a more threatening bowler) and he made two in each innings.

New Zealand (possible): 1 Devon Conway, 2 Tom Latham, 3 Kane Williamson, 4 Rachin Ravindra, 5 Daryl Mitchell, 6 Tom Blundell (wk), 7 Glenn Phillips, 8 Mitchell Santner/Michael Bracewell, 9 Tim Southee (capt), 10 Ajaz Patel, 11 Will O’Rourke

Stats and trivia

Two of Ajaz Patel’s five career five-wicket hauls have come in Galle. He averages 22.35 at the venue.
Roy Dias was the fastest Sri Lanka batter to 1000 Test runs, getting there in 23 innings. Kamindu has 822 runs from 12 knocks so far.
Prabath Jayasuriya has an outside shot of becoming the equal-fastest to 100 Test wickets in the game’s history, if he gets 12 wickets in this match. The only bowler to get there in 16 matches was George Lohmann, who achieved the feat way back in 1896. Of Jayasuriya’s 88 wickets, 62 have come in Galle.

Andrew Fidel Fernando is a senior writer at ESPNcricinfo. @afidelf

Source: ESPN Crickinfo