WTC final scenarios: India need a win in Sydney to stay in contention

Australia

Percent: 61.46; matches remaining: India (1 home Test), SL (2 away)

If Australia win the Sydney Test against India, they are through to the WTC final regardless of results in Sri Lanka – if Australia were to win in Sydney but lose both Tests in their upcoming series in Sri Lanka, they would finish on 57.02 percentage points to India’s 50 and Sri Lanka’s 53.85.

A draw in Sydney will keep them ahead of India, but it would leave the door open for Sri Lanka to sneak through; if Australia were to draw in Sydney but lose both Tests in Sri Lanka, they would finish on 53.51, while Sri Lanka would climb up to 53.85.

If Australia were to lose in Sydney, they would need one win in Sri Lanka to qualify. A 1-1 verdict in Sri Lanka after losing in Sydney would leave Australia on 57.02 to India’s 55.26.

India

Percent: 52.78; matches remaining: Australia (1 away)

India need to win in Sydney to stay in contention for the WTC final. A win would take India to 55.26, which would be enough for them to finish second if Australia were to achieve no more than one draw in Sri Lanka. In that case, Australia would drop to 53.51, and Sri Lanka would finish with 48.72 (with a 1-0 win).

However, if India only manage a draw, they will drop to 51.75 and will be out of the WTC final race. That is because even if Australia were to lose both Tests in Sri Lanka after drawing in Sydney, they would finish on 53.51, while Sri Lanka would climb up to 53.85.

Sri Lanka

Percent: 45.45; matches remaining: Australia (2 home)

The only way Sri Lanka can qualify is if the Sydney Test ends in a draw and they then beat Australia 2-0. In that case, Sri Lanka, on 53.85, would finish above Australia (53.51) and India (51.75).

If India win in Sydney, they will knock Sri Lanka out. Australia, also, will certainly finish ahead of Sri Lanka if they go to 3-1 in the Border-Gavaskar Trophy.

S Rajesh is stats editor of ESPNcricinfo. @rajeshstats