What do India, Australia, South Africa et al still have to do to make the WTC final?

Posted By on December 1, 2024

With 15 Tests to go in the current World Test Championship (WTC) cycle, several teams are still in contention, and no team is assured of a place in the top two. Here is how the teams currently stack up.

South Africa
Percent: 59.26, matches remaining: SL (1 home Test), Pak (2 home)

South Africa’s comprehensive win in Durban is one tick in the bag, out of the four they need, to be certain of a place in the WTC final irrespective of other results. If they lose the second Test against Sri Lanka and win both against Pakistan, they would still have a fair chance of qualifying at 61.11%, but Sri Lanka and India could both go past them – Sri Lanka, if they win 2-0 against Australia, and India, if they win at least three of their remaining four Tests against Australia. Australia can go past 61.11 too with four wins and a draw, but in that case both India and Sri Lanka would finish below South Africa.

If South Africa beat Sri Lanka in the second Test and draw 1-1 against Pakistan, they would still finish on 61.11, but they would be assured of a place in the final as Sri Lanka would only get to 53.85 if they win both Tests against Australia. Thus, only one of Australia or India can go past South Africa in that case.

Sri Lanka
Percent: 50.00, matches remaining: SA (1 away Test), Aus (2 home)

The Durban defeat means Sri Lanka can finish with a maximum of 61.54% if they win their three remaining Tests. That would still guarantee a place in the final, as only India or Australia can finish higher. If they lose one more Test and win two, their percentage will drop to 53.85, which would then leave them depending on several other results. Currently South Africa, India, Australia, and New Zealand can go past 53.85.

New Zealand
Percent: 50.00, matches remaining: Eng (2 home)

New Zealand’s sloppy fielding in Christchurch might have scuppered any realistic chance of making their second WTC final. A 3-0 series win against England would have taken them to 64.29%, but this defeat means the maximum they can achieve is 57.14. This could still be enough for them to finish among the top two – or even on top of the table – but for that several results would have to go in their favour. For instance, if the Australia-India series finishes 1-1, as do South Africa’s two home series and Sri Lanka’s home series against Australia, then New Zealand will still top the table with 57.14. If one of those teams go past 57.14, New Zealand could yet finish second, but that still leaves them depending on too many other results.

India
Percent: 61.11, matches remaining: Aus (4 away)

India’s emphatic win in Perth takes them back to the top of the WTC points table, and keeps their chances of making it to the final at Lord’s next year very much alive. To be certain of finishing among the top two, India still need to beat Australia 4-1: four wins would lift India to 64.04, which would be more than Sri Lanka’s maximum of 61.54 if they were to win their three remaining Tests, and more than South Africa’s 61.11 if they were to beat Pakistan 2-0 but not sweep Sri Lanka. If South Africa were to sweep Sri Lanka as well 2-0, they would get to 69.44, meaning India, with four wins in Australia, would be second on the points table.

However, these scenarios are based on other teams maximising their points. If that doesn’t happen, India could still make it with far fewer points. If, for example, these results happen from the key upcoming series:

  • India lose to Australia 2-3
  • New Zealand draw with England 1-1
  • South Africa draw 1-1 at home in both their remaining series, versus Sri Lanka and Pakistan
  • Australia draw 0-0 in Sri Lanka

Australia would finish on top at 58.77, but India’s 53.51 would still be enough for second place, ahead of South Africa (52.78), New Zealand (52.38) and Sri Lanka (51.28). Thus, where India finish up also depends on how the other results pan out.

Australia
Percent: 57.69, matches remaining: Ind (4 home Tests), SL (2 away)

The defeat in Perth means Australia have plenty to do to finish in the top two without depending on other results. Given that South Africa and Sri Lanka can both finish on more than 61%, Australia need four wins and a draw in their last six to finish ahead of Sri Lanka’s maximum of 61.54; in this case only South Africa, with a maximum of 69.44, could finish ahead of them.

If India were to win the ongoing series 3-2, Australia could still finish ahead of them, but only if they sweep the away series against Sri Lanka 2-0. In this case, Australia would finish on 60.53, marginally ahead of India’s 58.77. In that case, they would surely finish in the top two, as only South Africa could go past that.

Pakistan
Percent: 33.33, series remaining: SA (2 away), WI (2 home)

Pakistan’s home form has shown some revival, but it’s most likely too late in this cycle. If they win each of their four remaining Tests, they would finish on 52.38. In such a case, they would still need several results going their way to be in contention. If, for instance, Sri Lanka lose 0-1 in South Africa and draw 1-1 against Australia, India lose 1-2 in Australia, and New Zealand lose 1-2 versus England, then Pakistan’s 52.38 would be enough for a second place behind Australia.

England
Percent: 43.75, matches remaining: NZ (2 away)

England’s win in Christchurch has marginally improved their percentage to 43.75. It’s almost certain that it won’t be enough for qualification, though there’s a mathematical chance of finishing second on 48.86 if several other results go their way: if India get no more than 13 points from their remaining games, with the upper limits being six and 16 respectively for South Africa and Sri Lanka, then England could still finish second to Australia.

Bangladesh and West Indies are out of contention for a place in the top two.

S Rajesh is stats editor of ESPNcricinfo. @rajeshstats

Source: ESPN Crickinfo

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *