'Hell of an opportunity' – Scotland eye historic victory over Australia to grab Super Eight spot – T20 IPL 2024

Match details

Australia vs Scotland
St Lucia, 8.30pm local time

Big Picture

England’s thumping win over Oman has ensured against any run-rate shenanigans in this match (and David Warner won’t be opening the bowling). Providing Namibia don’t pull off an upset against England in the hours leading into this game, the equation will be simple: Scotland win and they go through – although a washout would also do.

Simple equation, difficult prospect.

Scotland are not planning on the earlier result to help them. “We always knew this was going to be a must-win game for us and look, it’s a hell of an opportunity for us to go and play really good cricket and take on one of the best in the world,” Michael Leask said.

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Australia have looked like one of the best sides in the competition and even if, as expected, they rest a few players for this one they will retain a very strong XI. However, Scotland have played some excellent cricket themselves and are not without a chance of pulling off what would be one of their most famous results. Progression to the Super Eight would also guarantee a place in the next T20 World Cup.

As they showed against Oman, the top order is full of power, led by George Munsey, while captain Richie Berrington provides an experienced and calming influence in the middle order. He and Leask combined critically in the matchwinning stand against Namibia.

Australia has the luxury of looking ahead to the Super Eight stage – where they will face Afghanistan, India and most likely Bangladesh – and can rotate players for this game if they wish. Pat Cummins said it was an aim pre-tournament to get a match into as many of the squad as possible.

The last time they met was at the 2015 ODI World Cup when Australia won by seven wickets. Leask hoped that could work in their favour. “It does kind of hold us in a little bit of good stead as well because they don’t know what we’re capable of, given the fact that we’re playing really good cricket at the moment.”

Form guide

(last five completed matches, most recent first)
AustraliaWWWWW
Scotland WWLWL

In the spotlight: Nathan Ellis and Mark Watt

With Australia likely to manage some players Nathan Ellis would appear set for another outing, meaning three games for him in the group stage. A sign that he has yet to break into the big three came when he didn’t play against England, but he is a very consistent performer when called upon. It’s hard to make a case to leave out one of the other quicks, but Ellis’ skiddy style and his excellent yorker does offer a good contrast.

Mark Watt is a crafty and clever left-arm spinner – his 24-yard delivery is much talked-about – who in the last T20 World Cup in Australia became centre of attention for the notes he had written down in his pocket against West Indies. He can operate at various phases of an innings and against Oman took the new ball – having been a touch more expensive than is often the case against Namibia – although a repeat of that may be unlikely against the left-handed opening pair of Warner and Travis Head.

Team news: Possible outing for Green; Currie could return

Australia have strongly suggested there will be some rotation, but who sits out remains to be seen. It would appear sensible not to rush Mitchell Starc back while, given the compressed schedule from the Super Eight onwards, there may be some consideration to managing Marcus Stoinis. Cameron Green, Ashton Agar and Josh Inglis are yet to feature.

Australia (possible) 1 David Warner, 2 Travis Head, 3 Mitchell Marsh (capt), 4 Glenn Maxwell, 5 Marcus Stoinis/Cameron Green, 6 Tim David, 7 Matthew Wade (wk), 8 Pat Cummins, 9 Nathan Ellis, 10 Adam Zampa, 11 Josh Hazlewood

Brad Currie missed the Oman game with a niggle but Leask said that everyone was fit so he could return in place of Safyaan Sharif.

Scotland (possible) 1 George Munsey, 2 Michael Jones, 3 Brandon McMullen, 4 Richie Berrington (capt), 5 Matthew Cross (wk), 6 Michael Leask, 7 Chris Greaves, 8 Mark Watt, 9 Chris Sole, 10 Brad Wheal, 11 Brad Currie.

Pitch and conditions

It is the first game of the tournament for St Lucia, so another venue for the teams to get used to. Australia will return for their Super Eight game against India and either Scotland or England will face West Indies at the ground which carries the name of their coach Daren Sammy. The forecast suggests only a small chance of a shower. A reminder, a no result would be good enough for Scotland.

Stats that matter

George Munsey needs 29 runs to reach 2000 in T20Is. He would be the second Scotland player to reach that mark after Richie Berrington

Of players to have scored at least 500 T20 runs this year, Travis Head has the third-highest strike-rate of 183.57, behind Jake Fraser-McGurk and Andre Russell. If the cut-off is 700 runs (which 21 players have reached) Head is No. 1

Australia have played nine T20Is in St Lucia with a 5-4 winning record, although lost 4-1 in 2021. It is the venue of one of their most famous T20 wins when Mike Hussey pulled off a remarkable chase in the semi-final of the 2010 T20 World Cup.

Since the start of 2023, no team has scored faster in the powerplay than Australia’s 10.08.

Quotes

“I think coming here a lot of us have prepared for plenty of spin depending on what venue you get to. I know here’s a good wicket. I think this might be the venue we play India at so that’ll be nice. But, yeah, we’re going to get a heap of spin. We expect nothing different and they’re all, on their day, they’re all going to be very very hard teams to beat.”
Matthew Wade with an eye on the Super Eight

“I think it’d be an incredibly proud moment for Scottish cricket if we did progress to the Super Eight. And look, let’s not beat around the bush. It would be the tough way. We know we’re going to have to beat Australia. So, I think that would make it extra special for us, knowing that we’ve played an incredibly good game of cricket, taking on the best in the world, beat the best in the world to progress.”
Michael Leask on the chance to beat Australia

Andrew McGlashan is a deputy editor at ESPNcricinfo

Source: ESPN Crickinfo